Promising First Deployments of Hydrogen-powered Aircraft Operations in the European Commercial Flight Network

Abstract

Airlines require assurance of adequate infrastructure at airports before investing in hydrogen aircraft, while airports require confirmation of long-term airline commitments before investing in hydrogen infrastructure as both airlines and airports operate with small profit margins, creating a "chicken-or-egg problem". This challenge extends beyond airlines and airports alone, encompassing, amongst others, OEMs, hydrogen fuel suppliers, land-side supply chains, land-use planners and regulatory bodies. To address part of this stalemate, this study presents a methodology to identify promising origin-destination airport pairs for early deployment of hydrogen-powered aircraft operations in the European commercial flight network. The airport pair suitability is quantified using compatibility with the hydrogen TRANSCEND aircraft range and seat capacities, proximity to hydrogen infrastructure, potential number of hydrogen flights, effect on passenger volume, available airport area, production costs of hydrogen, availability of renewable electricity, and commitment of airlines and airports to hydrogen operations. The outcome of this study is a concise ranking of European origin-destination pairs, with comprehensive scorecards detailing their suitability for hydrogen operations across various criteria. The study identified ESSA-LFPG (Stockholm Arlanda Airport – Charles de Gaulle Airport) as the top-ranked origin-destination pair for hydrogen aircraft operations in the 2035 scenario using the TRANSCEND aircraft, while EETN-EVRA (Tallinn Airport – Riga International Airport) emerged as the best pair in the 2040 scenario, with routes from and to EHAM (Amsterdam Schiphol Airport) also featuring prominently in the top 10. The analysis is based on the 2023 flight network without adapting routes or demand to reflect the introduction of hydrogen aircraft. The methodology prioritises compatibility between airport pair flights and TRANSCEND aircraft characteristics and impacts on airline passenger-revenue-kilometre values when transitioning to hydrogen flights. The study demonstrated that the suitability of airport pairs depends on complex interaction of the identified factors, highlighting that there is no one-size-fits-all solution. This research is intended as a foundation for future evaluation that can inform relevant potential investments, ultimately contributing to addressing the chicken-or-egg problem in hydrogen aircraft adoption.